1/24/12- A detached observer may wonder, while gazing upon the sorry spectacle that has become the European Union, why the EU continues to antagonize Iran with the threat of an oil embargo while its own house is in such grave economic disorder. Does Iran's pursuit of full mastery of the nuclear cycle represent that much of a strategic threat to the EU that the latter is willing to jeopardize its own economic recovery to hinder Iran?
The answer is yes. As has been mentioned on this blog before, Iran's nuclear program is not a military threat to anyone, yet what it does is erase any military threats that Israel or the U.S. could pose towards Iran. Once Iran achieves full mastery of the nuclear cycle, all parties in the region will have to recognize and come to grips with the fact that the much vaunted "military option" that is so often said to still be on the proverbial table, will no longer be an option. In the words of Joe Biden, that is a big f'ing deal.
And this reality is precisely why the U.S., E.U., Israel, and their Persian Gulf Arab lackeys are so concerned about Iran's nuclear program. They don't fear an Iranian nuclear attack at all. What they fear is the coming day when their military power is rendered meaningless vis-a-vis Iran. And without the threat of Israeli/American military arms, their power to contain Iran's regional ambitions will evaporate.
This state of affairs will effectively lead to a Middle East in which Iran controls a significant sphere of influence which will be rivaled only by the American sphere of influence which includes Saudi Arabia and its other client states. With enormous influence in a new, Shia-dominated Iraq, Iran will be poised to challenge the American/Israeli/Saudi axis and rival them for power and influence throughout the region.
And so given this reality, the E.U., which profits from the power of the American/Israeli/Saudi axis is even willing to harm its own economic recovery in order to attempt to delay the coming day when Iranian power forms a dominant axis in the Middle East.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Friday, January 6, 2012
Hormuz, Sanctions, and the Western Media
Tensions between Iran and the EU/U.S. have greatly increased in recent weeks, primarily as a result of a concerted push by the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany to precipitate a confrontation with Iran, ostensibly over its nuclear program.
Of course, the world knows that Iran's nuclear program is not a military threat to anyone. It is, rather, a definite strategic threat to Western domination of the Middle East. In addition, most rational analysts agree that sanctions never work, especially against a nation with massive energy reserves in a global environment in which oil and natural gas are extremely hot commodities.
The question then remains: what exactly are these four countries seeking to accomplish by the implementation of draconian sanctions against Iran? The short answer is that they know full well that sanctions are practically ineffective, yet their great hope is to affect the psyche of the Iranian people and create an increased atmosphere of economic panic and uncertainty over a possible military confrontation. Thus, these latest round of sanctions are intended to have more of a psychological effect than any practical results.
Earlier this week, it seemed as if the sanctions were beginning to have their intended result as the Iranian rial went into a nose-dive, and a general atmosphere of financial panic began to arise in Iran. Yet, as the week has progressed, the Iranian government has successfully stabilised the exchange rate through the manipulation of interest rates and other banking policies. The dollar/rial rate has now returned to its prior position. The near term financial panic has subsided, yet uncertainty continues to prevail among the general population.
It will be interesting to see how Russia and China react to these unfolding events. I predict that China will continue to strongly oppose increased sanctions against Iran in public, while in private the two nations will reach an agreement on the eastward re-routing of Iranian tankers dedicated to the delivery of oil to the EU in the event of an EU embargo on Iranian oil. Thus, Iran will suffer no actual harm from any of these new sanctions. Psychological harm is another matter, however, and Tehran should take additional steps to reassure a jittery public that stability will be maintained.
Of course, the world knows that Iran's nuclear program is not a military threat to anyone. It is, rather, a definite strategic threat to Western domination of the Middle East. In addition, most rational analysts agree that sanctions never work, especially against a nation with massive energy reserves in a global environment in which oil and natural gas are extremely hot commodities.
The question then remains: what exactly are these four countries seeking to accomplish by the implementation of draconian sanctions against Iran? The short answer is that they know full well that sanctions are practically ineffective, yet their great hope is to affect the psyche of the Iranian people and create an increased atmosphere of economic panic and uncertainty over a possible military confrontation. Thus, these latest round of sanctions are intended to have more of a psychological effect than any practical results.
Earlier this week, it seemed as if the sanctions were beginning to have their intended result as the Iranian rial went into a nose-dive, and a general atmosphere of financial panic began to arise in Iran. Yet, as the week has progressed, the Iranian government has successfully stabilised the exchange rate through the manipulation of interest rates and other banking policies. The dollar/rial rate has now returned to its prior position. The near term financial panic has subsided, yet uncertainty continues to prevail among the general population.
It will be interesting to see how Russia and China react to these unfolding events. I predict that China will continue to strongly oppose increased sanctions against Iran in public, while in private the two nations will reach an agreement on the eastward re-routing of Iranian tankers dedicated to the delivery of oil to the EU in the event of an EU embargo on Iranian oil. Thus, Iran will suffer no actual harm from any of these new sanctions. Psychological harm is another matter, however, and Tehran should take additional steps to reassure a jittery public that stability will be maintained.
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