Wednesday, February 15, 2012

An Update and Brief Commentary on Recent Events

2/15/12- Several important developments regarding Iran have occurred since my last post.

Iran has successfully loaded domestically manufactured fuel rods into a medical reactor in Tehran. This is a significant development along Iran's path towards full mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle. Predictably, the U.S. has dismissed Iran's progress as "hype". This is laughable because according to the the U.S. and Israel, Iran's nuclear program is a dangerous menace to the world. If that is so, how come every time Iran announces a nuclear breakthrough, the U.S. dismisses it as bluster and hype?

The U.S. can't have it both ways. Either Iran is incompetent and not to be taken seriously, or its nuclear program is very capable and professionally run. The fact is, the U.S. likes to ridicule and put down Iran and its capabilities when it's convenient to do so from a propaganda perspective, while at other times they play up those same capabilities.

On yesterday's post I mentioned the likelihood that the recent bomb-related incidents in India, Georgia, and Thailand were Israeli false flag operations. One possibility which I neglected to mention is that the MEK Iranian apposition terrorist group, which has confirmed ties to Israel and the U.S. carried out the two operations in India and Georgia, and was planning another operation in Thailand as part of an Israeli sponsored campaign to discredit Iran internationally.

The MEK is a cult-like organization with a long history of terrorist attacks inside Iran and elsewhere. They have links to Israel and have been protected by the U.S. in Iraq where they maintain a base. No evidence thus far has come to light implicating the MEK, yet the possibility is strong that they were involved.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Israeli False Flag Operations

2/14/12- Recently, an Israeli diplomatic vehicle in New Delhi was blown up, another similar vehicle in Tiblisi, Georgia had a bomb attached to it that was later defused, and three alleged "Iranians" in Thailand were injured in an explosion.

There is no chance that any of these acts had any connection to Iran. These were most likely false flag operations carried out by Israel itself. First of all, Indian investigators have asserted that they do not believe the attack in New Delhi had any connection Iran. There are no indications that the Georgian attempt had any connection to Iran either. As far as the Thai incident is concerned, the Thai police claim to have found the men's "Iranian" passports. That in itself means nothing because Israel has routinely forged passports from various nations in the past, and there is no reason to believe that they couldn't have forged these Iranian ones. For example, not long ago Israeli agents murdered a Hamas operative in Dubai using forged Irish, Australian and British passports.

Israel's reaction to these events betrays their purpose. They have instantly been used by a hysterical Israeli government to play up their propaganda campaign against Iran. Once again, just as with the bogus terror plot against the Saudi ambassador to Washington, one must ask who gains from these events. Iran? Hardly. Israel gains when Iran is made to look like a sponsor of terror. The Israelis know that and they are definitely morally and psychologically depraved enough to perpetrate false flag operations to achieve their aims.

In view of the Israeli/American public hysteria (which doesn't reflect private concern over an Iranian military threat, but rather a strategic one) Iran must remain calm and reserved so as to contrast itself favorably against Israel's infantile rants. While I agree with the idea that strength must be projected and manifested outward in a geopolitical sense, bellicose rhetoric should be left to the war mongers, while a three-thousand year old civilization like Iran ought to present an image of adamantine resolve and quiet determination to achieve its rightful place on the world stage. Thus, to paraphrase Teddy Roosevelt, Iran must speak softly while continuing to brandish a big deterrent stick.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Iran and the Syrian Civil War

2/07/12- In a previous post on this blog I discussed Iran's dilemma regarding the situation in Syria, namely that continued support for the Assad regime could damage Iran's image throughout the Middle East as a champion of revolutionary Islam and the downtrodden.

Since that previous post, however, events in Syria have taken a decided turn towards genuine civil war. The opposition to President Assad has completely renounced non-violence and has embarked upon an armed struggle against the regime. This turn of events has, in a sense, made Iran's situation vis-a-vis Syria much easier. Iran can now continue to support Assad more comfortably, openly, and strongly, because the Syrian regime is no longer repressing a peaceful, non-violent protest movement, but is dealing with an armed insurrection.

Furthermore, from the perspective of Shia Iran, the fall of the Assad regime would be more than just a strategic and geopolitical setback. It will also be a victory for militant Wahabi and Salafi Sunni Islam, and by extension, Saudi Arabia.

The most worrying development in the Middle East over the course of the previous decade, but especially within the past several years has been the increasingly clear demarcation of sectarian battle lines and spheres of influence. Shia Iran, Iraq, and Syria, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon can now be viewed as an anti-Saudi, anti-Wahabi and Salafi axis in the region. The Saudis, Qatar, and the GCC, along with what appears to be a burgeoning militant Sunni takeover in Egypt forms the Sunni axis.

The great x-factor in this equation seems to be Turkey, which is a majority Sunni country with a moderate Islamist government that has taken sides against the Syrian regime. Whether Turkey's intentions are to increase its cachet with the rising Sunni Islamist governments around the region, or whether the Turkish government is preparing the way for close ties with a post-Assad Sunni government in Syria remains to be seen. What is of concern, however, is that it may impossible for any regional country to remain neutral in all-out sectarian strife that appears to be in store for the region.