5/9/12- From NATO's perspective, there can be no better outcome to the conflict in Syria than to see a fragmented nation, with both sides controlling a defined territorial space. That scenario would render Syria useless as an ally of Iran, while preventing the rise to power of Wahabi extremists, which is a distinct possibility should the Assad regime fall. Thus, it would be the best of both worlds.
With this in view, the Assad regime has absolutely no fear of a NATO military intervention at the moment. The US has undoubtedly given the green light to the Saudis and others to continue the clandestine arming and financing of the Sunni groups in Syria. The aim of this policy is not to cause Assad's downfall, but rather to ensure the continuation of a perpetual conflict in Syria.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Friday, May 4, 2012
Reconsidering Iran's Relationship With Turkey
5/4/12- In light of recent friction between Iran and Turkey over a variety of issues, it is high time for Iran to reconsider its strategic and diplomatic posture vis-a-vis Turkey.
Turkey, as a NATO member will undoubtedly be instrumental in the implementation of the much discussed missile shield, which poses a direct security threat to Iran, Russia, and other regional countries. Unless Turkey is willing to abstain from participation in the shield program, which is highly unlikely, Iran should seriously consider reciprocal action, such as engaging Armenia on possible joint military cooperation and exercises close to the Turkish border to send Ankara an unmistakable message.
Furthermore, with the increasing strength of Maliki's Iraq, and it's friendly disposition towards Iran, a genuine possibility for a joint Iran/Iraq axis exists. If such an alliance is formalized, and if it ever extends to close military cooperation, Iran will have the strategic freedom to push Turkey away, and restrict it's ties with Ankara to purely economic interests.
In addition to these considerations, the Kurdish issue is always relevant in a discussion of Iran/Turkey ties.
Iran is dealing with elements of the PJAK group operating along its north-western border regions. Turkey can provide valuable assistance with the Kurdish problem, but at what price to Iran? It would be far wiser
strategically for Iran to neutralize its Kurdish problem alone, while clandestinely providing support to anti-Turkish Kurdish groups, in the event that proxy elements become useful in any future conflict with Turkey.
Turkey, as a NATO member will undoubtedly be instrumental in the implementation of the much discussed missile shield, which poses a direct security threat to Iran, Russia, and other regional countries. Unless Turkey is willing to abstain from participation in the shield program, which is highly unlikely, Iran should seriously consider reciprocal action, such as engaging Armenia on possible joint military cooperation and exercises close to the Turkish border to send Ankara an unmistakable message.
Furthermore, with the increasing strength of Maliki's Iraq, and it's friendly disposition towards Iran, a genuine possibility for a joint Iran/Iraq axis exists. If such an alliance is formalized, and if it ever extends to close military cooperation, Iran will have the strategic freedom to push Turkey away, and restrict it's ties with Ankara to purely economic interests.
In addition to these considerations, the Kurdish issue is always relevant in a discussion of Iran/Turkey ties.
Iran is dealing with elements of the PJAK group operating along its north-western border regions. Turkey can provide valuable assistance with the Kurdish problem, but at what price to Iran? It would be far wiser
strategically for Iran to neutralize its Kurdish problem alone, while clandestinely providing support to anti-Turkish Kurdish groups, in the event that proxy elements become useful in any future conflict with Turkey.
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