Iran and the Syrian Civil War

2/07/12- In a previous post on this blog I discussed Iran's dilemma regarding the situation in Syria, namely that continued support for the Assad regime could damage Iran's image throughout the Middle East as a champion of revolutionary Islam and the downtrodden.

Since that previous post, however, events in Syria have taken a decided turn towards genuine civil war. The opposition to President Assad has completely renounced non-violence and has embarked upon an armed struggle against the regime. This turn of events has, in a sense, made Iran's situation vis-a-vis Syria much easier. Iran can now continue to support Assad more comfortably, openly, and strongly, because the Syrian regime is no longer repressing a peaceful, non-violent protest movement, but is dealing with an armed insurrection.

Furthermore, from the perspective of Shia Iran, the fall of the Assad regime would be more than just a strategic and geopolitical setback. It will also be a victory for militant Wahabi and Salafi Sunni Islam, and by extension, Saudi Arabia.

The most worrying development in the Middle East over the course of the previous decade, but especially within the past several years has been the increasingly clear demarcation of sectarian battle lines and spheres of influence. Shia Iran, Iraq, and Syria, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon can now be viewed as an anti-Saudi, anti-Wahabi and Salafi axis in the region. The Saudis, Qatar, and the GCC, along with what appears to be a burgeoning militant Sunni takeover in Egypt forms the Sunni axis.

The great x-factor in this equation seems to be Turkey, which is a majority Sunni country with a moderate Islamist government that has taken sides against the Syrian regime. Whether Turkey's intentions are to increase its cachet with the rising Sunni Islamist governments around the region, or whether the Turkish government is preparing the way for close ties with a post-Assad Sunni government in Syria remains to be seen. What is of concern, however, is that it may impossible for any regional country to remain neutral in all-out sectarian strife that appears to be in store for the region.