Geo-political Entanglements

12/01/11- Geopolitical issues tend to become intertwined and entangled, and regarding Iran, the situation is no different. Take the recent intensification of western European, American, and Canadian pressure on Iran ostensibly over its nuclear program. This latest offensive can be traced back to the ridiculous October revelation by the U.S. Department of Justice of an alleged plot by the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Gaurds to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington by hiring Mexican cartel members. The plot seemed less than genuine from the start to most Iran experts, and the whole thing must be viewed as part of a concerted campaign to ratchet things up against Iran.

The DOJ revelations were followed in November by a negative IAEA report on Iran, U.S., French, British, and Canadian calls for intensified financial sanctions, in conjunction with continued Israeli threats. But these steps have not occurred in a vacuum.

What is going on domestically in Britain, France, the U.S. and Canada? The financial crisis and economic worries have the French president in real fear of becoming a one-termer. The British economic picture is very bleak as well. A foreign policy outlet for sagging domestic fortunes looks very attractive at the moment to these leaders.

In addition, the NATO missile shield, which has been a source of contention between NATO and Russia for years is being talked about increasingly. In the past, the better Russian relations have been with the West, the more readily Russia has cooperated with the West on Iran. But it seems right now as if Russia has reached a point at which it feels that there is nothing much to be gained from a close relationship with the U.S. and NATO countries. NATO's stance on Libya, as well as the West's hard line on Syria have effectively alienated Russia, and have enabled it to take a much more conciliatory line with Iran.

Regime change in Iran is, of course, the single most important long-term foreign policy goal for the U.S. and NATO in the middle east. They will never admit it openly, but that is their ultimate aim. Their problem has been that economic sanctions have never been very effective against Iran, and military options range from extremely messy to catastrophic. The recent vow taken by Western Europe to refrain from purchasing Iranian oil is a poorly though-out and shallow policy. Oil is a fungible commodity. Iran sells about 10% of its oil exports to Europe and it can easily re-route its tankers to new and eagerly awaiting customers who would be delighted to buy Iranian oil.

So the picture that emerges is an entangled web of economic, military, and strategic issues that centers around Iran. Firstly, economic times are tough in the West and a foreign policy distraction would be very welcome for leaders in every Western capital. Secondly, the West's geo-political wrestling match with Russia is directly affecting Iran policy on all sides since Russia is clearly moving away from the West and looking eastwards. And thirdly, Iran's ability to shrug off economic sanctions has consistently frustrated and confused those in the West who are desperate to see a weakened, emasculated Iran.