12/05/11- With the Sunni rebellion in Syria intensifying and increasingly bearing more and more hallmarks of an outright civil war, Iran, Syria's staunch ally is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, Iran does not want to abandon its ally in a time of need. On the other hand, there is at least a plausible possibility that Assad's days are numbered, and Iran needs to have contingency plans ready for a post-Assad future.
Syria is a critical ally for Iran, because without this alliance it faces a near uniform wall of hostility among other Arab regimes. The Syrian alliance provides a conduit for Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as a valuable mil-to-mil relationship between the armed forces of the two countries.
But, as the Assad regime teeters, Iran is loathe to be perceived within the wider Muslim world as being supporters of a secular, iron-fisted dictatorship that continues to murder devout, peaceful Muslims. Iran has taken care to develop an image of itself throughout the Muslim world as a defender of the faith, and its current posture regarding Syria doesn't fit well with that narrative.
In addition, Iran is currently embroiled in a serious internal power struggle between the Supreme Leader and his faction of ultra-conservative clerics on the one hand, and Ahmadinejad's faction of Islamic nationalists on the other. This struggle manifests itself in the form of divergent policies and statements regarding foreign affairs. For example, the Supreme Leader has maintained an unwavering support for the Syrian regime throughout the crisis and has consistently blamed the rebellion there on spies and infiltrators. The foreign ministry controlled by Ahmadinejad, in contrast, has taken a less hardline stance on the matter and has even called for an end to the government's violence.
It will be interesting to see how Iran resolves this dilemma, as it may be a good indicator of the state of Iran's internal power struggle.
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